Study Reveals Prediction Market Users Lose Money at a Faster Pace Than Sports Bettors

(AsiaGameHub) –   According to a new report from Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender, which utilizes anonymized wallet data from the tracking platform Juice Reel, retail participants on prediction market platforms are experiencing poorer outcomes than those using legal US sportsbooks.

Study Shows Prediction Markets Users Lose More

The research indicated that the median return on investment for prediction market users stood at -8% from July 2025 onward. This contrasts with a median ROI of -5% for bettors on legal US sportsbooks during the same timeframe and a figure of -7% in an earlier iteration of the report. The analysis also looked at users active on both types of platforms. This group showed a median ROI of +1% on sportsbooks compared to -6% on prediction markets, suggesting to Bender that these individuals might represent less profitable customers for conventional betting firms.

Additionally, during Q4 2025 earnings calls, gaming executives projected that prediction markets represented between 0% and 5% of diverted sports betting activity, a range that corresponds with Citizens’ own estimate of 5%. Earlier this month, Bender published a separate report arguing that betting data providers stand to gain significantly from the growth of prediction markets.

Who Is Using Prediction Market Platforms?

Bender’s report cited a discussion hosted by Citizens featuring two professional bettors, who noted that prediction markets present a promising avenue for profits since retail users typically take the opposite position. One participant stated that being positioned against the general public is optimal, characterizing market-making as very appealing and comparing the situation to running platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using Sensor Tower data, the report also noted that 24% of Kalshi users are under 25, and the company has a median user age of 31. By comparison, the median age is 35 for both DraftKings and FanDuel. It was also emphasized that approximately 90% of DraftKings’ revenue comes from users aged 30 and above.

The report also suggested a possible slowdown in acquiring new customers, observing that app downloads for FanDuel and DraftKings fell by 18% and 13%, respectively, from September 2025 to February 2026. In that same period, Kalshi achieved 6.3 million downloads, and its user base, which skews younger, may be a factor in that expansion.

It is important to mention that while Bender’s report provides valuable details on the spending behaviors and demographics of prediction market users, it is not the initial study to assert that these users incur greater losses than traditional sports bettors. Similar findings have been reported before, and Kalshi has contested the notion that its regular users lose money more quickly than those on standard sports betting platforms.